Let's be fair, Facebook ate the Internet a long time ago. And in spite of recent indigestion (privacy, Cambridge Analytica), it looks set to survive and even flourish in the wake of recent scandals. The only other brand that appears quite so resilient is Ryan Air and perhaps some of the largest UK retail banks.
Anyway, Instagram. So, there I was, at the start of 2011, posting my first badly filtered photo (a dog in the window of an Amsterdam clothes shop), the next thing I know, Instagram looks set to become a major e-commerce platform.
How did that happen? I've been writing about the rise of the visual web since at least 2010, so I guess I'm not all that surprised. Photography is now the most important creative and software skill on the planet. Apart, perhaps, from Excel.
This weekend I was visiting a dusty basement second hand store in the south of Berlin. Amidst the chaotic stacks of chairs, leather sofas, ornate bookshelves and others, the owners had carved out a free space.
Perfectly clean, with whitewashed walls, this corner was immaculately lit by professional lamps, while the photographer prepared her DSLR and polished a set of walnut chairs ready for a shoot.
The website - and the Instagram channel are full of bright, studio-perfect pictures. Needless to say, they enjoy rocketing sales from that shabby basement.
And you can guarantee that they, like millions of others, will make Instagram as an important a shopping channel as E-bay and Amazon as soon as it becomes available to the mainstream. Snap on.
But the whole point of Instagram not allowing links in captions is to keep you in a smooth, uninterrupted browsing flow. Getting booted out to the web to buy something broke that. Instagram Payments could make impulse buys much quicker, enticing more businesses to get on board. Even if Instagram takes no cut of the revenue, brands are likely to boost ad spend to get their shoppable posts seen by more people if the native payments mean more of them actually complete a purchase.